Glossary

AI matchup grade (0–100) — higher = sharper edge, more model conviction, better live data.

Total dedicated betting capital. Drives unit sizing.

Closing Line Value — how much better (or worse) your price was than the market's closing price, in implied-probability points. Positive CLV means you beat the market.

Combined American odds for the parlay — payout on a $100 stake if every leg wins.

Win probability — projection-based for player props, de-vigged implied odds plus model edge for sides/totals/MLs. The real chance this bet wins, not a model conviction score.

Change vs the prior period (day/week/month). Positive = improving.

Behavioral health of your betting — flags tilt (3+ losses) or oversized stakes.

Your % advantage vs the sportsbook's implied probability.

Total picks today crossing the model's win-probability + EV threshold.

Expected Value — long-run profit % per dollar wagered if odds match true probability. Positive EV (+EV) means a profitable edge.

Fade — bet the OPPOSITE side of a sharp or public pick. Used when you think the pick is wrong, or to fade the public on heavily-bet sides.

Faded ROI — the return you'd have made betting the opposite side of these picks. Used to check whether fading beats tailing.

Hidden gem — under-bet line the public is missing; pricing inefficiency we exploit.

Implied probability — chance baked into the sportsbook's odds.

Juice / gate cutoff — the most expensive price the Professor will accept on a favorite (e.g. -175). Anything more expensive is skipped.

Line movement — how the spread or total has shifted since opening. Big moves often signal sharp action or news.

Max drawdown — the largest peak-to-trough drop in bankroll, as a %. Lower is smoother.

Straight-up win bet, no spread.

American odds. + means underdog payout on $100 stake; − means amount needed to win $100.

Bets currently unsettled and at risk.

Combined multi-leg bet. All legs must win. Higher payout, higher variance.

Current quarter/half/inning of the live game.

Net dollar P/L on this bet after settlement (stake returned on a win, lost on a loss).

AI-projected stat line for the player based on usage, matchup, pace, and recent form.

AI's data-driven rationale: why this pick has an edge right now.

Volatility tier (Low/Medium/High) based on variance, line stability, and uncertainty.

Return on Investment — net profit divided by total amount staked, as a %.

Current score in the live game (away – home).

Sharp money % — share of betting handle from professional/respected bettors. Higher = pros are on this side.

Point spread — favorite must win by more than the number; underdog can lose by less or win outright.

Amount of money risked on this bet.

Time until kickoff/tip-off. Live games show 'Live'.

Stored Conf — the model's blended confidence score for this pick (math edge + AI matchup read).

Quick labels highlighting why this pick stands out (sharp action, weather, model edge, etc.).

Tail — bet the SAME side as a sharp or featured pick. You're riding their conviction; if they win, you win.

Over/Under on combined points scored by both teams.

True probability — model's estimate of the actual chance of winning.

Suggested unit size. 1 unit = 1% of bankroll (Kelly-adjusted). Use to size your stake responsibly.

Live model win probability for the listed team given current score, time remaining, and pace.

Win probability — projection-based for player props, de-vigged implied odds plus model edge for sides/totals/MLs. The real chance this bet wins.

Win rate — % of settled bets that won.

Expected goals — the number of goals a team 'should' have scored based on shot quality and location. A better form signal than the raw score.