Glossary
Quick definitions for every term you'll see across picks, props, and parlays.
Tail vs Fade
Tail
Bet the same side as a sharp, capper, or featured pick. You're riding their conviction — if they win, you win.
Example: The Professor likes Lakers −5. You also bet Lakers −5. You're tailing.
Fade
Bet the opposite side. Use when you think the pick is wrong, the source is on a cold streak, or you want to fade heavy public money.
Example: Public is 85% on Lakers −5. You bet the opponent +5. You're fading the public.
Rule of thumb: Tail when you trust the source's edge. Fade when the line has moved against the public — pros usually take the unpopular side.
AI matchup grade (0–100) — higher = sharper edge, more model conviction, better live data.
Total dedicated betting capital. Drives unit sizing.
Combined American odds for the parlay — payout on a $100 stake if every leg wins.
Win probability — projection-based for player props, de-vigged implied odds plus model edge for sides/totals/MLs. The real chance this bet wins, not a model conviction score.
Change vs the prior period (day/week/month). Positive = improving.
Behavioral health of your betting — flags tilt (3+ losses) or oversized stakes.
Your % advantage vs the sportsbook's implied probability.
Total picks today crossing the model's win-probability + EV threshold.
Expected Value — long-run profit % per dollar wagered if odds match true probability. Positive EV (+EV) means a profitable edge.
Fade — bet the OPPOSITE side of a sharp or public pick. Used when you think the pick is wrong, or to fade the public on heavily-bet sides.
Hidden gem — under-bet line the public is missing; pricing inefficiency we exploit.
Implied probability — chance baked into the sportsbook's odds.
Line movement — how the spread or total has shifted since opening. Big moves often signal sharp action or news.
Straight-up win bet, no spread.
American odds. + means underdog payout on $100 stake; − means amount needed to win $100.
Bets currently unsettled and at risk.
Combined multi-leg bet. All legs must win. Higher payout, higher variance.
Current quarter/half/inning of the live game.
Net dollar P/L on this bet after settlement (stake returned on a win, lost on a loss).
AI-projected stat line for the player based on usage, matchup, pace, and recent form.
AI's data-driven rationale: why this pick has an edge right now.
Volatility tier (Low/Medium/High) based on variance, line stability, and uncertainty.
Return on Investment — net profit divided by total amount staked, as a %.
Current score in the live game (away – home).
Sharp money % — share of betting handle from professional/respected bettors. Higher = pros are on this side.
Point spread — favorite must win by more than the number; underdog can lose by less or win outright.
Amount of money risked on this bet.
Time until kickoff/tip-off. Live games show 'Live'.
Quick labels highlighting why this pick stands out (sharp action, weather, model edge, etc.).
Tail — bet the SAME side as a sharp or featured pick. You're riding their conviction; if they win, you win.
Over/Under on combined points scored by both teams.
True probability — model's estimate of the actual chance of winning.
Suggested unit size. 1 unit = 1% of bankroll (Kelly-adjusted). Use to size your stake responsibly.
Live model win probability for the listed team given current score, time remaining, and pace.
Win probability — projection-based for player props, de-vigged implied odds plus model edge for sides/totals/MLs. The real chance this bet wins.
Win rate — % of settled bets that won.